Tag Archives: prediction markets

Blogging passion

Well it is less than a week since Hubdub went into private beta but we are already attracting some interesting comments from bloggers.

Tom Reagan seems to have created a new blog just to say that our model is flawed due to the market mechanism and the truth is under threat from 4 guys at Edinburgh University with a neat idea (Disclosure: I am an investor in Hubdub).

To be fair, Tom’s post is based around the issue of market distortion in news, using markets to rank news is new but not that new.

The difference he says is the market can be distorted, something that is true of any market, but let’s be honest if you are good at distorting markets are you not going to do something useful rather than effect a few thousand users on our site (Like use your intelligence to make money!).

It is well documented that market mechanisms are less open to distortion than most others, and since Hubdub is a equal market where everyone starts with the same stake it is unlikely to be distorted by large sums of money. True multiple account creation could effect this – but the team have identified this and have some ways of monitoring this.

So, Tom, what can I say, I sleep safe tonight that this technology is not likely to bring down Scotland, the UK or the World but in the spirit of fairness the team have created a market to hedge against this.

If you think that this is likely register for an invite code below.

Get your private invite code at www.hubdub.com and save the world.